Week 1 NCAA Mid American and Southeastern Conference Lines and Picks

After the weekend I will post my record, check back then to see how incredibly smart I am.  These are all of the currently posted games, with a spread, for MAC and SEC games this week.  I pick each and every game, not just the easy ones.  If you want the choice picks, based on those below, then you need to subscribe as outlined below.

My win % is only calculated using my 'Big Plays', not this listing of ALL games.  Big Plays are avail only to those that subscribe.

You can get the how and why on sports radio, Im just giving you the meat and potatoes.  Again, if a game is NOT listed, there is no line. e.g.  No line for Oregon and LSU at present as they are cheetahs.  The team with the number is the team Im picking to cover.

Thursday:
 Bowling Green @ Idaho -7.5
Miss St -29 @ Memphis

Friday:  no action

Saturday:
Utah St @ Auburn -21.5
Akron @ Ohio St -34
Miami Ohio +17 @ Missouri
Kent St + 38 @ Alabama
W. Mich @ Michigan -13
BYU @ Ole Miss +3
Buffalo +31 @ Pitt
S Carolina @ East Carolina +21
Army @ N Illinois -10
Indiana @ Ball St +7
Ohio -7.5 @ N Mex St
Boise @ Georgia +3.5

The Play- Conference Champions, or atleast my prediction for 2011

Here it is, no fluff just the facts:

Mid-American Conference Champions
East:  Miami Ohio Red Hawks
West:  Toledo Rockets

Conference Champion:  Toledo Rockets

Southeastern Converence Champions
East:  South Carolina Gamecocks
West:  Ark.. ar... arkans.... Alabama

Confernece Champion:  Alabama

I very much want to pick Arkansas, but Bamas QB issues are less than the hog's.

Mid American Conference WEST Division Breakdown and Picks

Although the MAC West has no team rated  higher than 57 there are only two racing for the Division Championship:  Northern Illinois Huskies and Toledo Rockets.  Although the other schools have made changes to improve their programs, the bulk of talent resides in Toledo and NIU.

Dave Doeren, NIU new head coach inherits an offense that returns all five OL, including a Lombardi Award candidate, and QB Chandler Harnish, a first team all conference player.  The question is, will Doeren know enough to trust his more offensive minded coaches to unleash a pass oriented offense.  Yes, NIU will still have a running game, but losing the conference leading runner would put a hitch in anyone's gitty-up, look for Jasmin Hopkins experience and shiftyness to balance the offense well.

On defense, the team lost a lot of talent, seven starters to be exact.  They say defense wins championships and that statement will be tested this year for the Huskies.  Doeren is good and he will maximize the ability of run stuffer Nabal Jefferson and move around the ends to make for some challenging blocking schemes for opposing offenses.  Although the DBs are  young, they have talent- Tommy Davis will lead the corp and work as special teams returner as well.

Toledo has third year coach Tim Beckman putting together a squad heavy on experience and a team that may win ugly, but in 2010 win they did.

On offense Toledo looks like a keg of TNT, but are missing key personnel on the OL and are looking to run a tandem at QB, if you guessed one is a runner and one a passer- ding ding ding!!!  your a winner.  Yes, they lost a stud at RB but they have a stable of possible replacements- RB is not a concern.  The highlight of the O is WR Eric Page, an All-American, and an explosive talent.

This team also has a defensive minded coach in Beckman, but they have been hindered by preseason injuries and law enforcement officials.  On the other side they are the recipient of a few experienced and talented D-1 transfers.  The bottom line is that they return 9 starters and that is great way to start, what makes it better is speedy play with Fatiniku on the end, a gritty throw back MLB in Molls at LB, and a talented team of DBs.

What is the concern at Toledo?  Both O and D lines, do they have the depth if injury requires it and can they rotate enough DL to keep everyone fresh.  The biggest concern- rotating QBs when you have this kind of offensive talent, obviously there are concerns.

My Picks for the MAC West...

Champion:  Toledo.  I think coach will settle in on one QB before the 11/1 game versus NIU, as that is the game that determines the Division Champion, the others are just a tune-up.

If you want to gamble, take 4:1 odds on Western Michigan to win the division, they have a very good D returning and would be the only dark horse.  4:1 is not very good but Im just feeding your need to bet.

Knile Davis injury impact to Razorbacks

Unfortunately the Razorbacks are not loaded in 2011 like they were in 2008 (McFadden, Jones, Hillis) in the ball running department.  With Knile Davis out for the year (expect a comeback in week 9- home against South Carolina) that puts additional pressure on the offense as he was the offense.

The Razorbacks have a QB that has limited playing time, but he did well last year against Auburn and he has a very good WR corp.  There are two big questions:  will an inexperienced O-line have what it takes to give Wilson a chance to get the ball out and will the coaching staff be able to plan around their weakness.

Davis would have the same difficulty as his back up, Ronnie Wingo, except being the SECs leading rusher in 2010 makes me think he would make it happen.

Fret not, if the passing game works and/or the line can open up some holes for Wingo then they have a chance.  Why?  Because the Razorbacks return a very good defense, both against the run and coverage- if you can hold field position and stay close there is always a chance.

SEC super conferencing

What the SEC is looking to do is become the first real NCAA Football Super Conference.  They already have 12 teams, most competitive, five uber-competitive and three that have not seen success since the invention of sliced bread.  What the SEC does the others will follow.

Why 'super conferencing'?  One it gives more power to the individual conferences- if the conferences want to buck the NCAA, BCS or other ignorant bully they would have at least a fighting chance.  Two, it really separates the serious football programs from the other hanger-oners.  Not that OK State, Iowa, Stanford, etc are not football serious- they are, but they are never going to be year in, year out contenders or power houses.

There is room for these secondary teams in the super conferences, as the big boys need someone to beat up on when they are not thrashing each other.  Although Miss St and Vanderbilt are not top teams in the SEC they would both wipe up with any other conference that they would be affiliated.

Vanderbilt would consistently beat up on their peers if there was a conference like the Kudzu League (southern version of Ivy League) who would be made up of Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulane and Citadel.  Now place Miss State in Conference USA and you would quickly see them consistently winning the conference title.  (We will leave Kentucky out as we all know they only play basketball.)

Now the rumors swirl that VA Tech, Florida State, Clemson and Texas A&M are heading to the SEC in 2012.    What is the benefit of one 16 team conference?  The result will be fewer bowl games, more two loss teams and the problem of pitting two SEC teams together for the national championship. Unless there are four super conferences and a playoff system the increased size does not work.

Until the Big 10 changes their name to the  Great Lake Conference and the Pac 12 becomes the PacWest and the Big East and ACC merge then year after year we will debate one of two questions:

Why is the BCS Championship played by the same teams as the SEC championship game?

Why did the BCS not choose two SEC teams for the championship game?