Championship Week Picks

Reviewing the last real week of College football games you will notice the absence of many of the over/under bets.  Most of these games involve either Conference Championship combatants or other intra-conference games to finalize the year.  I guess the oddsmakers believe that there is too much variance in these games to accurately predict an over/under, maybe they will open them up later in the week when the weather situation settles.

Anyway, I picked all the games with the exception of two. I have 6 PLAYMAKERS which I will discuss this week on David Nuno and Robert Neagli Show on 1560THEGAME.  If your out of town try listening online, hopefully I can get the call in on Thursday.

My picks are below in BOLD:

West VA -1 @ S Florida  I like under 55
Northern Ill @ Ohio +4
UCLA @ Oregon -32 (get it early before it rises)
Southern Mississippi @ U of Houston -14 (get it early before it rises)
U Conn @ Cincinnati -10 (buy down a half point just in case)
Idaho @ Nevada -20
Fresno St @ San Diego St -8
Wyoming -5.5 @ Colorado ST
Mid Tennessee @ North Texas -5 (I would take the first half instead at -2)
Virginia Tech -7.5 (I would by down a point) @ Clemson
Mich ST +10 @ Wisconsin
Georgia +14 @ LSU

I did not pick Texas/Baylor due to Texas being crazier than a drunken John Granato and Io St/ Kansas St because I just cant decide in a winner.  I would pick Kst if you put a gun to my head.

Good luck and I hope you enjoyed the picks this year.

Rivalry Week Results

Going into the last week of the regular season, which for NCAA Football includes the Conference Championship Games, I am  118-61 66% on all games picked and 47-15 76% on Playmakers.  Not too bad, Im still ahead of my previous best season by 4 points.

This past weeks Playmakers included the following winners:  Miami O/Ohio under, W. Michigan, U of Houston, LSU, Wyoming and I had one loser:  Kent State.

After looking at the Sat night schedule I added in (but not for my record keeping pursposes Stanford and USC, with USC being my biggest play of the year.  I have to thank one of the guys I consult for inquiring about the game, otherwise I would have missed it.  I stay away from the late games because Im usually footballed out by 9PM, but if you missed this gimme then you missed a big one.

The last week of the season starts this week, not counting bowl games, so expect to see some posts by WED night.

If you have been winning by using some of my picks, as I hope you have, and want to show a little appreciation, I do take donations…  via paypal to THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@GMAIL.COM

Nov 22 Week 13 - RIVALRIES

This weeks picks, mine in bold.  Again, if you want a special review of a game you like, email me at theplaywithvegasvic@gmail.com Ill try to respond, as I will be travelling to Alabama to watch the Bama V Auburn game.

M Ohio @ Ohio -9 (take the under if avail as weather conditions will force Ohio to run)

E Michigan @ N. Ill -19

Bowling Green @ Buffalo -2

Akron @ W. Michigan -28

Kent +17 @ Temple

Arkansas @ LSU -12

Georgia -6 @ G Tech

Tennessee @ Kentucky +8 (TN money line is good)

Bama @ Auburn +21

Vandy -1 @ Wake Forrest

Flo ST -2 @ Flo

Ole Miss @ Miss St -17

Clemson +4 @ S. Carolina

Others:

U Houston -3.5 @ Tulsa (look at the UH over in Q2 and Q3, both won lately)

Texas @ aTm -7.5

Wyoming +35 @ Boise

Playmakers?  I have 6 this week.  Hear them sometime this week, I have no idea what day, on David Nuno and Robert Neagli on 1560 THE GAME.

Week 12 Results

Going into Thanksgiving, Im pretty happy that we are winning.  This was a good week going 9-3 over all and 4-2 with the Playmakers.

Winners were:  Ball State and the over, Arkansas and LSU.  Losers were Georgia and Western Michigan scoring more than 28.  Honestly, still, I think those last two were locks and I still dont understand the circumstances that led to them failing.  But as my Mom says, "if, but, whaaaaaaa".

Season win rate for all games 67%
Season win rate for PlayMakers 75%

With the holidays approaching I will try to get info up the best I can.  Again email me if you want a special review of an opportunity.  This past week I helped others by picking:  Wyoming Under, USC, Kansas St, TX AM, Cal...   where I failed:  Southern Miss, Wisconsin and I really sold Georgia.

Nov 18 Week 12 Picks

Im super swamped at work and Im offering the following to you for your viewing pleasure.  These are feeling based as I did not rake the numbers, therefore no further Playmakers at this time.  If things change this weekend Ill post it- sorry

Toledo -15 @ C Mich
Akron +12 @ Buffalo
E Michigan @ Kent St -3

UK @ Georgia -31
Miss St @ Ark -14
Vandy @ UT +2
LSU -31 @ Ole Miss

Watch weather this weekend for the O/U plays...  the cold has not helped passing teams.

November 16 plays

Ohio -7  @ Bowling Green and under 60

Although I like West Michigan in general at +2 (looks like a trap spread), I took their team o 29

I really don't think Miami Ohio will keep up w them when they get down

Kill'em!

Nov 15 Play

I attached my ticket, parts blocked out that are nunabiz, as I played the game last night but could not post.

Week 11 Results

Sorry for the late post, but work comes first.  I will have my picks for tonight and any other non-standard game more than an hour prior to start.

Last week I went 10 for 18 in all games and 5 for 7 on Playmakers.  Winners were:  N. Ill, Miami Ohio, Kent, Vanderbilt and Wisconsin.  Losers:  Florida and Alabama

It was a tough week as the books won many one sided plays and hit the mark on many games.

Better luck next week.

Nov 11 SEC and MAC Plays for the week

This week was actually good to me, but that bust in last nights four team round robin hurt a bit.  Looking back, both round robins missed by a total of 7 points for paying off big.  But that is the business, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.  The point is to grind it out with the cream of the crop- the PLAYMAKERS.

There were two this week (Toledo Over and Ohio -7) both paid off.  I have identified four additional games this week that should have a high rate of return.  Listen to David Nuno and Robert Neagli today between 10-Noon for the PLAYMAKERS.

Here are my regular picks, my choice in bold:

Buffalo +3.5 @ E Michigan
Kent St -6 @ Akron  this might be first game Kent is favored

Florida +3.5 @ South Carolina
Kentucky @ Vandy -13
Auburn @ Georgia -13
Tennessee +15 @ Ark
Alabama -18.5 @ Miss St
La Tech @ OleMiss +3

Here is some other choice picks that may ammuse you

Texas-1.5
Tex Tech +18
Wisconsin -27
Kansas St +5
Boise -15
Stanford -3.5

Nov 10 MAC Game

Im doing a round robin with the following:

Ohio -6.5
Ohio/CMichigan Under 30 first half
Houston -20.5 first half
Georgia Tech Under 25 first half

I hope you liked the play last night, both winners.

Nov 9 MAC Game

Miami Ohio +14 @ Temple  I like the over 44

Nov 8 MAC Games

Tonight there are two MAC games to play, both have meaning for the teams that may be their divisions champion.

Northern Ill -5 @ Bowling Green  (spread started at -7)
O/U 65 OVER
predicted score:  41-32


Western Michigan @ Toledo -12 (spread started at -10)
O/U 68 OVER
predicted score:  28 - 50

There is a lot of action occurring on these games.  Get in on Toledo quick and wait on NI and the spreads will come into your favor.  My PlayMakers:  There is one listed above and here is a free-be:  tease Toledo and the over for the best chance to win.  Nothing is guaranteed, but I like the tease.

Week 10 results

Point of disclosure:  even though I said in week 1 or 2 that I counted ties as a win because 'its hard enough playing the line.'.  It has been called to my attention that this is weak, so I have adjusted my win % by two for the season and 1 for Playmakers.  Point is, I put in writing that was my methodology up front- there is no funny business here.

This week was not a good one as I went 6 for 11 on picking all the games in both conferences.  My only over/under loss of the season- Kent State.  Fortunately that was also the only Playmaker I lost of the week.

No real heart breakers out there except but I do feel foolish for picking Ole Miss to beat Kentucky.  They are both so bad, I should have stuck with my original intuition and not let the numbers speak.  Both teams are out of everything and in those cases it is usually the home team that prevails.

For the record, my Playmakers were:  Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Wyoming and Houston.  The loser was Kent St Under.  This was the first week I offered two out of conference games as Playmakers, but there was slim pickings.  Since I do one/one consulting for other games, as requested, Houston and Wyoming were the cream of the crop and I decided to pass them on to you as well.

I broke out the Wyoming pick on 790 with the Big Show and the others with my steady date David Nuno and Robert Neagli on 1560 The Game (you can stream them).  But Nuno as always had me on  rain/shine so you can look forward to me providing you insight next Friday sometime between 11 and noon Central.

There are other games that start tomorrow Tues Nov 8th, as the MAC loves TV coverage on traditional dark nights.  Come back to the blog page to see those picks the day of the event.  I t ry not to pick too far in advance due to weather changes and player arrests : )

OK here are the numbers, adjusted per above disclaimer:

For the Season picking all posted games:  89 games won and 43 lost,  OUCH!!!  a teeth rattling 67% win percentage.  DAMN!!! Sorry about this, I hate giving you guys cruddy info.  I try to remember that I am picking ALL the games and its not as bad as it looks, but I can do better.

For my PLAYMAKERS:  33 wins and 10 losses, holding steady at 77% winners.  This is good, anything over 70% is good, but as always my goal on Playmakers is 80%.

This late in the season dont hold your breath for any more upset picks.  If something jumps out at me Ill pass it on to you.

Nov 4 Week 10 Picks

The MAC had two very good games on earlier, I went 2-1 on my picks there.  I doubled my bankroll on Northern Illinois and tried to double again with Temple, but that QB change did not help...  : (  

The weekend continues to have big games with 6 PlayMakers (one o/u, three out of conference)

I will pass on my PlayMakers today on 1560 The Game with Nuno and Neagli, but only the out of conference games.

Did you know that if you bet $100 on every pick I made so far this season you would be up $4,300?  

Again, my picks in bold:

Central Michigan +1  @ Kent State (under 43 looks like a winner)

Ball State @ E. Michigan -2.5

Vandy +14 @ Florida (opportunity for an over??)

NM State +32 @ Georgia UGA is not a strong closer at home

Ole Miss -2 @ Kentucky (score fest or snoozefest?)

South Carolina @ Arkansas -5

LSU @ Alabama -5 (under anyone?)

My out of conference picks are a Nuno and Neagli special...

Bring home the bacon this week.

Temple VS Ohio

Although I think Ohio is better than their record, looking at the numbers and common opponents Im picking:

Temple -4

and if  you must the under 48 (im not playing this one)

Final:  Temple 34 Ohio 10, maybe...

Why, Temple has the loss to Bowling Green stuck in their throat for a whole week and this is a must win game fto get to the Conference championship.  Their running game and defense should keep the score of Ohio low.

Nov 1 game

Play tonight, not many cold weather games to gauge but I like

N. Illinois +8.5

over 67

Oct 30- Week 9 results

Interesting week, as I won a lot of games on Saturday then turned around and dumped most of it back in on Saturday night.  In the AM games I doubled my investment for the day and still had half my bets pending.  I ended, up for the afternoon then pressed it on Wisconsin- my bad...   Forgot to follow my own rule AGAIN, play the games you like the most and leave the rest of them to the chumps!!!

I thought I was going to continue my 3 week streak of picking an upset.  I got close, but close aint good enough.  If you recall I gave you the following upsets, not only to cover but win:  Vanderbilt (lost to a 90 yard fumble 6), Ole Miss +13 who gave Auburn a game for the first half and then Akron +8 in what I thought was really a coin flip game, but the Zips lost by 1.  So my streak of giving you a cash play upset is over, until next week.

I had 5 Playmakers that were discussed on the David Nuno and Robert Neagli show, plus the game from Thursday- Houston.  This week I won 4 (Miss St, Akron, Vandy, Ok St) and lost 2 (Ole Miss and Kansas St)  As noted on the show I thought Kansas St could be a set up game and it did look too good to be true.  Unfortunately Stoops and Co made that a reality.  My season Playmaker win percentage is 77%.

For all the Conference games, I slipped some, picking only 8 correct and missing 4.  My season winning percentage in these games is 70% winning 85 and losing 36.

As stated previously, when playing these games watch the weather and injuries as they ARE relevant.  It is often necessarily to lay off or jump on a game based on weather changes.  Two examples from this weekend were my plays on Houston and switching from Florida to Georgia based on the status of Brantley.  Brantley had a bad ankle and was expected NOT to play up to an hour before the game, but at game time he was in.  Luckily for me I changed my play.

NOTE TO READERS:  Just because I make notes next to my picks does not make them a Playmaker.  I usually note things I find of interest.  Occasionally I do note a over/under note, because I intend to play that and it is a 'pick'.

Again, if you want my Playmakers for the week, you can either email me for directions at THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@gmail.com  The cost is $10 per week.  I will also give you my opinion on other games if you email me, but understand that customers come first.

Week 9 Picks VS the line Oct 26

This week looks to have a lot more action than last, not only in the fact that there are numerous, quality games, but there are opportunities to win some money.

Playmakers for the week...   ...I have three listed below (past entries on how to get them) and two out of my usual conference picks that I will share on the Nuno and Neagli show tomorrow, sometime between 10 and Noon on 1560 THE GAME

My picks in BOLD:

C Michigan @ Akron +8  both defenses are in trouble and Central is only slightly favored
Bowling Green  -4.5 @ Kent State look at the under
Ball State +11.5 @ Western Michigan
Buffalo +7 @ Miami Ohio

Arkansas @ Vandy +10.5 
Georgia @ Florida +3 (Im not sold here) look at the under
Miss St -10 @ Kentucky
Ole Miss +13 @ Auburn
South Carolina @ Tennessee +4


If you want a special game breakdown just email me at THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@GMAIL.COM


remember, nothing in life is guaranteed except me being bad ass and death

Oct 22 Results week 8

Not bad but below average week for  @theVEGASVIC (follow me on twitter)  overall I was 9-5 on my blog picks and 7-3 on additional live radio picks.  As stated prior, this was going to be a good week for the bookmakers because they set spreads that were very close to the end results.  


Personally I lost 3 picks by a point or two and won two by the same.  I hate the guy that always says, "if... but..." but them is the breaks.  Sometimes the man knows what he is doing but other times he misses completely.  Look at the OU/ Tech game.  I was big on Tech and even increased my be after the long delay because I knew that only Tech was really motivated- OU was a 28 point fav they thought they would coast in for a win then BOOOM!!! Too late to come back


I also claimed Wisconsin to be a fraud and for the third week in a row picked a big upset game, not just to cover but win.  Now Wisconsin is not a fraud, as they (and OU) showed that they could come back and did not totally lose their composure, but they are not the teams many thought they were.  OU does not have a great QB, Wisconsin does not have an unstoppable offense.  Too bad the Spartans had that slip up against Notre Dame, they could be #3 right now.


One change to my picks.  At the time I published my blog the LSU/AU game was off the board, later reinstated at LSU -21.  I took LSU as noted on the David Nuno and Robert Naegli Show on 1560thegame, so I have added that into my win%.

This week I won 67% of my picks and ZERO of my Playmakers:  the only Playmaker I had this week was Temple who squeaked out a win at Buffalo. If there was an LSU line I would have added them in too but there was not.  I also would have added Tech and Michigan State, but this blog is about the SEC and MAC so I dont count those.


If you want me to handicap a specific game, please post it in the comments and Ill tell you what I think.

For the Season:

Picking all games in the SEC and MAC:  71% winning 77 and losing only 32 of all posted games.

Picking only my PlayMakers:  I am winning 76% of the time 26-7.  This weeks picks was only Temple, as noted above.  


Hopefully next week will have some better action that we can take better advantage.  Im just hoping that all the games do not get cancelled because everyone is too amped up about LSU/Bama.  It should be a good game, but damn people, its not like the football season is make or break on this one game. 

Week 8 Picks VS the Line

I would rather listen to Mike and Mike for a week than have to put my name on the picks this week.  Although there will be some good games, the house did a great job handicapping.  From what I saw, if you like an underdog get in early, if you like a favorite the wait it out and see if the line will decrease (generally).

Thanks to all those that view, as I just saw that I can track traffic on this site and Im getting about 50 hits a day- I appreciate it, I hope your winning.

This week picks in bold.

W Michigan -13 @ E Michigan

C Michigan @ Ball St -2

Temple -14 @ Bowling Green

Ohio -14 @ Akron

Miami Ohio @ Toledo -17 (the numbers disagree with me but I think Toledo rolls)

Strange the above has no dogs...

Army @ Vanderbilt -10

Tennessee @ Alabama -30 (Tennesse is getting tired and Saban wants to SCREAM ROLL TIDE)

Arkansas -17 @ Ole Miss

LSU/AU off the board at this time

Still no dogs...  

I have only one Playmaker this week so save your money and dont bother paying me for the picks.

With the lack of action in the SEC, I offer you the following:

Take Texas Tech +29 at OU

Take Missouri +8 over Ok St

I like Mich St +8 over Wisconsin

I dont like Uof H -23 over Marshall but Marshall sucks pretty bad and Ill take my chances with the cougs

Stanford +21 beats Washington 44-24

Texas AM -21 over Iowa St 51-20

Just my opinion...  ...I probably wont play much, maybe play a few small parlays with the data above.

Week 7 Oct 15 College Pick Results

Another great week for @theVEGASVIC (follow me on twitter)  overall I was 8-1 on my blog picks and 4-2 on additional live radio picks.  I missed Georgia who did not come to play like a team wanting to win the SEC East and Texas AM who apparently are tired of being chastized.  Good to see the Aggies spring back at home.  Baylor was a let down as they were getting 9 points and could not keep it close.

The big news was the injury to Marcus Lattimore.  Although I frown upon mom being allowed on to the field with her prayer team and laying hands upon the star RB, I hope it helped.  Lattimore is a star and losing him is a loss for college football.

This week I won 89% of my picks and all 3 of my Playmakers:  Temple, Ball State and LSU.  If you recall I told you to take the money line on Ball State (+720) against Ohio as they were a 13 point dog.  If you made a simple $10 bet you would have made $72!!!!

If you were smart enough to listen to 1560 THE GAME's David Nuno and Robert Neagli show on Friday you would have had all these picks, in addition to Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Auburn and Arizona States- all covered.

For the Season:

Picking all games in the SEC and MAC:  71% winning 67 and losing only 27 of all posted games.

Picking only my PlayMakers:  I am winning 78% of the time 25-7.  This weeks picks were Temple, Ball State and LSU.  YES that included another upset pick.

Week 7 Picks VS the line

It seems like there are few games this week to choose in the SEC but the MAC has a full slate.  Although conference play is in full effect there are not a lot of common opponents to judge the teams  yet, so we still need to focus on the ole research.

Im only seeing three PlayMakers and I might be stretching that definition.  Again, if you want to see them you can either pony up the $10 or listen to my call into Nuno and Neagli Show on 1560 THEGAME, if they want me to call in again- sometimes I can be a little risky on live radio #F-Bombs : )

Again, my picks are in bold.  Keep an eye on the weather as that may affect some of these games due to a dependence on passing.

Toledo -7 @ Bowling Green
Buffalo @ Temple -21
Eastern Michigan +13 @ Central Michigan
Miami Ohio -3.5 @ Kent State
Western Michigan @ N Ill +1.5 (watch this one if on TV in your area
Ball State +14.5 @ Ohio (try the money line here, if you dare)

LSU -17 @ TN
Alabama -26 @ Ole Miss (last 5 years the avg point diff 6 pts)
Georgia -11 @ Vandy

Strange to pick 3 road favorites in the SEC but this week is fairly unbalanced anyway.

Stephen Garcia- he got kicked off the team today.  The news is probably equally good for Garcia and the team.  Garcia was once one of the best QB prospects in the country and he picked Carolina to be tutored by the QB coach.  Looks like it was really Garcia's dad that picked Carolina for him and he could never handle the pressure.  Whatever benefits he has blown by losing his status on the team is far less that the weight of those demons in his head.  Seriously, no rational person gives up what he has been giving up without some serious mental issues.  Hopefully he can straighten out and live a normal life- whatever normal is.

For South Carolina, they can turn the keys over to a lesser athlete but he is complete- body and spirit.  Not to mention he is not too bad of a player.  The QB move really improves the team and they will be much better because of it.

Week 6 Line Results

As noted this was going to be a tougher week.  The MAC hurt the most as I personally put my blood on the line in more games than I should have.  Yes, even I go off the plan sometimes...  alot of times... but if I only listened to my own advice.

It was still a winning week. I added the OU/UT game since I picked it on air, it only seems fair (this blog was already published at that time).  This week I went 7-6 for ALL games, but won 4 (OU, Florida, Temple and N. Ill) and lost only one - Auburn.

S. Carolina showed that when they have a non-headcase QB they can actually score.  My bad for not changing my pick after that news.  In other heart breaker news...  how does a season favorite (Ohio) lose to Buffalo? not sure, but it hurt me, it hurt a lot.

Otherwise:

Week stats:  Overall won 54% 7-6;  PlayMakers:  80% 4-1

Season:  Overall, picking every game on the sheet 69% 59-26;  PlayMakers:  76% 22-7

I hope you stuck with the PlayMakers...

Week 6 Picks VS Spread

This is an interesting week, as we are in full Conference play  but there just a few SEC and MAC games that are ‘must see’ or relatively meaningful.  This does not mean that there are not deals to be had; currently I have four games slated for your PlayMakers.

I will be on the David Nuno and Robert Naegli show on KGOW 1560 The Game to cover these.  Only 1560 listeners will get a free PlayMaker.

My Picks are in bold; the fact that I scratch a note or two does not mean that I am backing that team or that I’m hinting it’s a PlayMaker.

Kentucky +21 @ S Carolina (Carolina can’t put their foot on the throat of a victim, yet)

Florida @ LSU -14

Vandy @ Alabama -29

Auburn +10 @ Arkansas (look at the under)

Georgia -2 @ Tennessee

Army @ Miami Ohio +3

Bowling Green +10 @ W Michigan

Temple -9 @ Ball State

E Michigan +21 @ Toledo (take Toledo and money line if you can)

C Michigan +11 @ NC State (find an under)

Ohio -8 @ Buffalo

Kent St @ N Ill -17

Remember I don’t guarantee anything except my past record of winning.

Week 5 Pick Results

WOW, this was a tough week to pick as inter-conference play was full in effect and there were many games which the contestants had not been truly tested.  With that said, I posted a warning for this week, hopefully you did not heed it and bet it up anyway- I did.

This week I went 14 and 2 for a teeth rattling 88% success rate.  Although I only had 3 PLAYMAKERS they all won.

For the Season:


Out of all SEC and MAC Conference games with a posted spread...  ...72%  I have 52 Wins and 20 losses.


Out of my PLAYMAKERS...   ...75% I have 18 wins and 6 losses  This week I picked Toledo, Auburn and Arkansas (live on David Nuno and Robert Neagli's show on 1560 the game)


If your reading this, please post a comment or subscribe so that I know your winning.

Week 5 Picks VS the LINE

Last week was a great week for the players- the bookmakers may have been knocked down but they just popped up and are ready to brawl.  (they don’t like missing)

Although, I provided an exclusive pick on the Nuno and Neagli show 1560 The Game 10-Noon, I don’t know if I can include it in my PlayMakers this week.  I make my plays based on the best picks of the week.  I pride myself on not forcing action for action sakes because a $5 loss is the same as a $500 loss to me.  But since I called Arkansas on the radio I have to stay with it- Book Arkansas!! 

If you have to play this week stay away from the parlays and look for some key o/u games like:  Kent St and Ohio (OVER), Toledo and Temple (UNDER).  Keep in mind weather conditions change and affect these, so lay off until game day.

Although I lay action on all my PlayMakers (Yes, I have a dog in that fight, I have skin on the line) I do not play all the following, I just pick them for your entertainment.

My pick is in BOLD

Toledo +8 @ Temple

Buffalo @ Tennessee -28

Akron @ Eastern Michigan -8

Cincinnati -14 @ Miami Ohio

Kent St +15 @ Ohio (look at the game result history here)

Western Michigan +3 @ Connecticut

N Illinois @ Central Michigan +9

Ball St +38 @ Oklahoma

Miss St @ Georgia -7 (although UGA always plays down, they have something to prove here)

Texas AM @ Arkansas +3 (home dog???)

Buffalo @ Tennessee -28

Auburn +10 @ S. Carolina (QB is a mess)

Alabama -4 @ Florida (smell a o/u??)

Ole Miss @ Fresno St. -3.5

Again, it’s a tough one, many games off the board.  I  only have 3 PlayMakers this week… 

Want to know what my PlayMakers are?  Read below and send me my damn $10.

Week 4 Pick Results

Seriously, I have two followers on this blog and everyone else is giving away money.  If I did not have technical issues yesterday morning I would have retired, because the only game I lost was Toledo and that was by one point.  Every parlay I made came back and did not get posted...   ... I forgot to hit 'confirm bet' button. DAMN!!!

Unfortunately, in the afternoon, I went off my sheet and got desperate to get the money that I should have won back, but I lost those two games.  Luckily I went hard on LSU to cover -6 and the LSU Over +31 that got me back in the black.

So here are the numbers:


This Week Total:  11 wins and 2 loses 85% winners


This Weeks PLAYMAKERS:  4 wins and 1 loss 80%  I took:  Toledo (loss) and won Michigan St, Temple, Florida and LSU.  Note:  LSU was a late add after the blog was posted.




For the Season, I have picked 68% correct (38 wins and 18 losses) out of all MAC and SEC games and my PLAYMAKERS have been 71% correct (15 wins and 6 losses)

Week 4 Picks VS the LINE

There are 14 games with spreads this week but only 4 PLAYMAKERS so watch your butt...

Again, team and line in bold are my picks.  If you dont understand that then you might want to keep your money in your wallet.

Toledo +2 @ Syracuse  (ACC LMFAO, you cant win in the Big East)
E Michigan +29 @ Penn State
C Michigan @ Michigan State -22
Temple +9 @ Maryland
Bowling Green +4 @ Miami Ohio
Army @ Ball St +4
W Michigan +14 @ Illinois

Georgia -10 @ Ole Miss
Arkansas +11 @ Alabama
Florida -20 @ Kentucky
Vanderbilt @ S. Carolina -15
La Tech +20 @ Miss St
LSU -6 @ W VA

Week 3 Pick Line Results

As stated prior to my picks, this week was not looking good for players.  The bookmakers did an excellent job with many games within a point or two of actual.  If I could have spread out just 6 points I would have been 65% accurate this week, but as Vegas Vic always says... IF, BUT, Whaaaaaaaaaa

OK this week I was 47% on all SEC and MAC games, very disappointing.  SEC teams did not cover against the non-conference teams which shows that they definitely play down out of conference.

For my Play Makers...   lousy 50%, why?  Although Auburn is better than expected Clemson is the real deal.  South Carolina played like Stephen Garcia after a frat party.   LSU kept their foot on the gas, looking to be an SEC West Contender and Wyoming did as expected and beat Bowling Green straight up.   Just FYI, the Cowboys look like a great underdog pick against the spread this year-keep an eye on them.

I played harder on the parlays this week by mixing up only my PLAYMAKERS, that saved me.

SEASON STATS:


Against All Games W a Posted Spread:  65%


Agaist the PLAYMAKERS:  69%

Week 3 Picks VS the line

My pick to cover in BOLD.  Tough picks this week as I only have 4 Playmakers---  Good Luck.
My file download was corrupted earlier in the week, I hope I have it fixed now.

Buffalo VS Ball State -5
Cincy -33 @ Akron (avoid this game)
Wisconsin @ N. Illinois +18
Miami Ohio +5 @ Minnesota
Tennessee @ Florida -9.5 (change from original)
Navy @ S. Carolina -15
Wyoming +9.5 @ Bowling Green
E Michigan @ Michigan -29
Penn St -7 @ Temple
C Michigan @ W Michigan -8
Mississippi -3 @ Vandy
Louisville +6 @ KU
LSU -4 Miss St
Toledo @ Boise -21
Marshall @ Ohio -5
Auburn +3 @ Clemson (too good to be true?)
Kent State +18 @ Kansas State
N Texas +47 @ Alabama
Troy @ Arkansas -23

Week 2 Line Results

This week I picked 8 out of 10 games right.  I count Georgia right because in the gambling game, a tie is NOT losing.  Out of my special 'Play Makers', which none of you subscribe I went 5/6, thats right... documented 5 wins and 1 loss.  Sucka!!!

This weeks 'Play Makers':  Kentucky, Toledo (damn right), Temple, Tennesse, Arkansas  the only loser was Mississippi State, I guess I bought into the hype...

For the season

Pick'em (I have to pick these, if there is a spread posted I pick'em) :  18 wins and 6 loses  75%

The Play Maker:  9 wins and 3 loss 75%

Its all right here, documented!!!!  Tony the Hatchet (chop chop) can not give you that.

Week 2 Sept 10 NCAA FOOTBALL Picks for Southeastern Conference and Mid-American Conference

Last week was pretty good and we all made some $$, lets see if this week can double our bank roll.  Again, I pick all games in the SEC and MAC that have a spread listed.  To see the ‘Big Play’, my best bets you have to give me that $10. 

I am picking the team in bold

C. Michigan @ Kentucky -10.5 (picking UK)

Toledo + 18.5 @ OSU (pick Toledo, get it?)

Miss St -6 @ Auburn

Cincy @ Tenn -4.5

Alabama -10.5 @ Penn State (the under is dropping fast)

South Carolina @ Georgia +3

Temple -15 @ Akron

Northern Ill -5 @ Kansas

Arkansas -36 @ New Mexico

UConn @ Vandy -2

There are some real opportunities this week.

NCAA Line Results plus the Play Maker

Current posted win % for all games:  71%

Picked 14- games won 10 lost 4

Current Play Maker win %:  67%

Picked 6- games won 4, lost 2
Won:  Miss St, Ohio St, Buffalo and E. Carolina
Lost:  Kent and Auburn

Week 1 NCAA Mid American and Southeastern Conference Lines and Picks

After the weekend I will post my record, check back then to see how incredibly smart I am.  These are all of the currently posted games, with a spread, for MAC and SEC games this week.  I pick each and every game, not just the easy ones.  If you want the choice picks, based on those below, then you need to subscribe as outlined below.

My win % is only calculated using my 'Big Plays', not this listing of ALL games.  Big Plays are avail only to those that subscribe.

You can get the how and why on sports radio, Im just giving you the meat and potatoes.  Again, if a game is NOT listed, there is no line. e.g.  No line for Oregon and LSU at present as they are cheetahs.  The team with the number is the team Im picking to cover.

Thursday:
 Bowling Green @ Idaho -7.5
Miss St -29 @ Memphis

Friday:  no action

Saturday:
Utah St @ Auburn -21.5
Akron @ Ohio St -34
Miami Ohio +17 @ Missouri
Kent St + 38 @ Alabama
W. Mich @ Michigan -13
BYU @ Ole Miss +3
Buffalo +31 @ Pitt
S Carolina @ East Carolina +21
Army @ N Illinois -10
Indiana @ Ball St +7
Ohio -7.5 @ N Mex St
Boise @ Georgia +3.5

The Play- Conference Champions, or atleast my prediction for 2011

Here it is, no fluff just the facts:

Mid-American Conference Champions
East:  Miami Ohio Red Hawks
West:  Toledo Rockets

Conference Champion:  Toledo Rockets

Southeastern Converence Champions
East:  South Carolina Gamecocks
West:  Ark.. ar... arkans.... Alabama

Confernece Champion:  Alabama

I very much want to pick Arkansas, but Bamas QB issues are less than the hog's.

Mid American Conference WEST Division Breakdown and Picks

Although the MAC West has no team rated  higher than 57 there are only two racing for the Division Championship:  Northern Illinois Huskies and Toledo Rockets.  Although the other schools have made changes to improve their programs, the bulk of talent resides in Toledo and NIU.

Dave Doeren, NIU new head coach inherits an offense that returns all five OL, including a Lombardi Award candidate, and QB Chandler Harnish, a first team all conference player.  The question is, will Doeren know enough to trust his more offensive minded coaches to unleash a pass oriented offense.  Yes, NIU will still have a running game, but losing the conference leading runner would put a hitch in anyone's gitty-up, look for Jasmin Hopkins experience and shiftyness to balance the offense well.

On defense, the team lost a lot of talent, seven starters to be exact.  They say defense wins championships and that statement will be tested this year for the Huskies.  Doeren is good and he will maximize the ability of run stuffer Nabal Jefferson and move around the ends to make for some challenging blocking schemes for opposing offenses.  Although the DBs are  young, they have talent- Tommy Davis will lead the corp and work as special teams returner as well.

Toledo has third year coach Tim Beckman putting together a squad heavy on experience and a team that may win ugly, but in 2010 win they did.

On offense Toledo looks like a keg of TNT, but are missing key personnel on the OL and are looking to run a tandem at QB, if you guessed one is a runner and one a passer- ding ding ding!!!  your a winner.  Yes, they lost a stud at RB but they have a stable of possible replacements- RB is not a concern.  The highlight of the O is WR Eric Page, an All-American, and an explosive talent.

This team also has a defensive minded coach in Beckman, but they have been hindered by preseason injuries and law enforcement officials.  On the other side they are the recipient of a few experienced and talented D-1 transfers.  The bottom line is that they return 9 starters and that is great way to start, what makes it better is speedy play with Fatiniku on the end, a gritty throw back MLB in Molls at LB, and a talented team of DBs.

What is the concern at Toledo?  Both O and D lines, do they have the depth if injury requires it and can they rotate enough DL to keep everyone fresh.  The biggest concern- rotating QBs when you have this kind of offensive talent, obviously there are concerns.

My Picks for the MAC West...

Champion:  Toledo.  I think coach will settle in on one QB before the 11/1 game versus NIU, as that is the game that determines the Division Champion, the others are just a tune-up.

If you want to gamble, take 4:1 odds on Western Michigan to win the division, they have a very good D returning and would be the only dark horse.  4:1 is not very good but Im just feeding your need to bet.

Knile Davis injury impact to Razorbacks

Unfortunately the Razorbacks are not loaded in 2011 like they were in 2008 (McFadden, Jones, Hillis) in the ball running department.  With Knile Davis out for the year (expect a comeback in week 9- home against South Carolina) that puts additional pressure on the offense as he was the offense.

The Razorbacks have a QB that has limited playing time, but he did well last year against Auburn and he has a very good WR corp.  There are two big questions:  will an inexperienced O-line have what it takes to give Wilson a chance to get the ball out and will the coaching staff be able to plan around their weakness.

Davis would have the same difficulty as his back up, Ronnie Wingo, except being the SECs leading rusher in 2010 makes me think he would make it happen.

Fret not, if the passing game works and/or the line can open up some holes for Wingo then they have a chance.  Why?  Because the Razorbacks return a very good defense, both against the run and coverage- if you can hold field position and stay close there is always a chance.

SEC super conferencing

What the SEC is looking to do is become the first real NCAA Football Super Conference.  They already have 12 teams, most competitive, five uber-competitive and three that have not seen success since the invention of sliced bread.  What the SEC does the others will follow.

Why 'super conferencing'?  One it gives more power to the individual conferences- if the conferences want to buck the NCAA, BCS or other ignorant bully they would have at least a fighting chance.  Two, it really separates the serious football programs from the other hanger-oners.  Not that OK State, Iowa, Stanford, etc are not football serious- they are, but they are never going to be year in, year out contenders or power houses.

There is room for these secondary teams in the super conferences, as the big boys need someone to beat up on when they are not thrashing each other.  Although Miss St and Vanderbilt are not top teams in the SEC they would both wipe up with any other conference that they would be affiliated.

Vanderbilt would consistently beat up on their peers if there was a conference like the Kudzu League (southern version of Ivy League) who would be made up of Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulane and Citadel.  Now place Miss State in Conference USA and you would quickly see them consistently winning the conference title.  (We will leave Kentucky out as we all know they only play basketball.)

Now the rumors swirl that VA Tech, Florida State, Clemson and Texas A&M are heading to the SEC in 2012.    What is the benefit of one 16 team conference?  The result will be fewer bowl games, more two loss teams and the problem of pitting two SEC teams together for the national championship. Unless there are four super conferences and a playoff system the increased size does not work.

Until the Big 10 changes their name to the  Great Lake Conference and the Pac 12 becomes the PacWest and the Big East and ACC merge then year after year we will debate one of two questions:

Why is the BCS Championship played by the same teams as the SEC championship game?

Why did the BCS not choose two SEC teams for the championship game?

Quick Picks

Each week, prior to Sept 3,  I will provide some analysis and then make my final predictions for the season for each division within the MAC and SEC conferences.  Here is a quick hit as to the Winners and Runners up for the respective divisions

If you put a gun to my head I would pick:

MAC EAST:
Miami University to win the Division.  18 returning starters on a winning team.
runner up:  Ohio University- they keep finding ways to win

MAC WEST:
Norther Illinois to win the Division and Conference.  Excellent returning offense and strong defensive HC
runner up:  Toledo- Stable coaches with 19 returning starters

SEC EAST:
Georgia to win the Division.  Much improved offense for 2011
runner up:  South Carolina.  Lattimore...   ...enough said

SEC WEST:
Alabama to win the Division and Conference.  They have the complete game
runner up:  LSU.  Speedy D and a new coach for a struggling QB

The Play... why does it cost $10

Here is how it works....

1) I comment on the weekly games and make BOLD predictions against the spread.
2) You can agree or disagree and you can play my picks, but just don't give me crap if you lose
3)  If you are interested in "The Playmakers" you can subscribe for $10 a week.  For that I give you The Play that pays.  Some weeks there are none, some weeks there are 4 or more games, it just depends on the match ups.

Why only $10 for this valuable service?  Simple, nothing is free and $10 never killed anyone.  I don't care if you play or don't play. I play and I play based off the info I provide as The Playmakers, I do not force bets or  play every game just because it has a line.  The only reason I handicap all games is because people want to  see them- nothing more or less.

Each week you will get all my picks for the SEC and MAC conferences, but which of those are The Playmakers... you will never know unless you subscribe.   How to subscribe, send me an email stating the length of time that you wish to subscribe and I will send you a PayPal bill.  Each week, as long as you are a subscriber I will email you "The Playmaker" picks.

Next blog, I break down the conferences.