Championship Week Picks

Reviewing the last real week of College football games you will notice the absence of many of the over/under bets.  Most of these games involve either Conference Championship combatants or other intra-conference games to finalize the year.  I guess the oddsmakers believe that there is too much variance in these games to accurately predict an over/under, maybe they will open them up later in the week when the weather situation settles.

Anyway, I picked all the games with the exception of two. I have 6 PLAYMAKERS which I will discuss this week on David Nuno and Robert Neagli Show on 1560THEGAME.  If your out of town try listening online, hopefully I can get the call in on Thursday.

My picks are below in BOLD:

West VA -1 @ S Florida  I like under 55
Northern Ill @ Ohio +4
UCLA @ Oregon -32 (get it early before it rises)
Southern Mississippi @ U of Houston -14 (get it early before it rises)
U Conn @ Cincinnati -10 (buy down a half point just in case)
Idaho @ Nevada -20
Fresno St @ San Diego St -8
Wyoming -5.5 @ Colorado ST
Mid Tennessee @ North Texas -5 (I would take the first half instead at -2)
Virginia Tech -7.5 (I would by down a point) @ Clemson
Mich ST +10 @ Wisconsin
Georgia +14 @ LSU

I did not pick Texas/Baylor due to Texas being crazier than a drunken John Granato and Io St/ Kansas St because I just cant decide in a winner.  I would pick Kst if you put a gun to my head.

Good luck and I hope you enjoyed the picks this year.

Rivalry Week Results

Going into the last week of the regular season, which for NCAA Football includes the Conference Championship Games, I am  118-61 66% on all games picked and 47-15 76% on Playmakers.  Not too bad, Im still ahead of my previous best season by 4 points.

This past weeks Playmakers included the following winners:  Miami O/Ohio under, W. Michigan, U of Houston, LSU, Wyoming and I had one loser:  Kent State.

After looking at the Sat night schedule I added in (but not for my record keeping pursposes Stanford and USC, with USC being my biggest play of the year.  I have to thank one of the guys I consult for inquiring about the game, otherwise I would have missed it.  I stay away from the late games because Im usually footballed out by 9PM, but if you missed this gimme then you missed a big one.

The last week of the season starts this week, not counting bowl games, so expect to see some posts by WED night.

If you have been winning by using some of my picks, as I hope you have, and want to show a little appreciation, I do take donations…  via paypal to THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@GMAIL.COM

Nov 22 Week 13 - RIVALRIES

This weeks picks, mine in bold.  Again, if you want a special review of a game you like, email me at theplaywithvegasvic@gmail.com Ill try to respond, as I will be travelling to Alabama to watch the Bama V Auburn game.

M Ohio @ Ohio -9 (take the under if avail as weather conditions will force Ohio to run)

E Michigan @ N. Ill -19

Bowling Green @ Buffalo -2

Akron @ W. Michigan -28

Kent +17 @ Temple

Arkansas @ LSU -12

Georgia -6 @ G Tech

Tennessee @ Kentucky +8 (TN money line is good)

Bama @ Auburn +21

Vandy -1 @ Wake Forrest

Flo ST -2 @ Flo

Ole Miss @ Miss St -17

Clemson +4 @ S. Carolina

Others:

U Houston -3.5 @ Tulsa (look at the UH over in Q2 and Q3, both won lately)

Texas @ aTm -7.5

Wyoming +35 @ Boise

Playmakers?  I have 6 this week.  Hear them sometime this week, I have no idea what day, on David Nuno and Robert Neagli on 1560 THE GAME.

Week 12 Results

Going into Thanksgiving, Im pretty happy that we are winning.  This was a good week going 9-3 over all and 4-2 with the Playmakers.

Winners were:  Ball State and the over, Arkansas and LSU.  Losers were Georgia and Western Michigan scoring more than 28.  Honestly, still, I think those last two were locks and I still dont understand the circumstances that led to them failing.  But as my Mom says, "if, but, whaaaaaaa".

Season win rate for all games 67%
Season win rate for PlayMakers 75%

With the holidays approaching I will try to get info up the best I can.  Again email me if you want a special review of an opportunity.  This past week I helped others by picking:  Wyoming Under, USC, Kansas St, TX AM, Cal...   where I failed:  Southern Miss, Wisconsin and I really sold Georgia.

Nov 18 Week 12 Picks

Im super swamped at work and Im offering the following to you for your viewing pleasure.  These are feeling based as I did not rake the numbers, therefore no further Playmakers at this time.  If things change this weekend Ill post it- sorry

Toledo -15 @ C Mich
Akron +12 @ Buffalo
E Michigan @ Kent St -3

UK @ Georgia -31
Miss St @ Ark -14
Vandy @ UT +2
LSU -31 @ Ole Miss

Watch weather this weekend for the O/U plays...  the cold has not helped passing teams.

November 16 plays

Ohio -7  @ Bowling Green and under 60

Although I like West Michigan in general at +2 (looks like a trap spread), I took their team o 29

I really don't think Miami Ohio will keep up w them when they get down

Kill'em!

Nov 15 Play

I attached my ticket, parts blocked out that are nunabiz, as I played the game last night but could not post.

Week 11 Results

Sorry for the late post, but work comes first.  I will have my picks for tonight and any other non-standard game more than an hour prior to start.

Last week I went 10 for 18 in all games and 5 for 7 on Playmakers.  Winners were:  N. Ill, Miami Ohio, Kent, Vanderbilt and Wisconsin.  Losers:  Florida and Alabama

It was a tough week as the books won many one sided plays and hit the mark on many games.

Better luck next week.

Nov 11 SEC and MAC Plays for the week

This week was actually good to me, but that bust in last nights four team round robin hurt a bit.  Looking back, both round robins missed by a total of 7 points for paying off big.  But that is the business, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.  The point is to grind it out with the cream of the crop- the PLAYMAKERS.

There were two this week (Toledo Over and Ohio -7) both paid off.  I have identified four additional games this week that should have a high rate of return.  Listen to David Nuno and Robert Neagli today between 10-Noon for the PLAYMAKERS.

Here are my regular picks, my choice in bold:

Buffalo +3.5 @ E Michigan
Kent St -6 @ Akron  this might be first game Kent is favored

Florida +3.5 @ South Carolina
Kentucky @ Vandy -13
Auburn @ Georgia -13
Tennessee +15 @ Ark
Alabama -18.5 @ Miss St
La Tech @ OleMiss +3

Here is some other choice picks that may ammuse you

Texas-1.5
Tex Tech +18
Wisconsin -27
Kansas St +5
Boise -15
Stanford -3.5

Nov 10 MAC Game

Im doing a round robin with the following:

Ohio -6.5
Ohio/CMichigan Under 30 first half
Houston -20.5 first half
Georgia Tech Under 25 first half

I hope you liked the play last night, both winners.

Nov 9 MAC Game

Miami Ohio +14 @ Temple  I like the over 44

Nov 8 MAC Games

Tonight there are two MAC games to play, both have meaning for the teams that may be their divisions champion.

Northern Ill -5 @ Bowling Green  (spread started at -7)
O/U 65 OVER
predicted score:  41-32


Western Michigan @ Toledo -12 (spread started at -10)
O/U 68 OVER
predicted score:  28 - 50

There is a lot of action occurring on these games.  Get in on Toledo quick and wait on NI and the spreads will come into your favor.  My PlayMakers:  There is one listed above and here is a free-be:  tease Toledo and the over for the best chance to win.  Nothing is guaranteed, but I like the tease.

Week 10 results

Point of disclosure:  even though I said in week 1 or 2 that I counted ties as a win because 'its hard enough playing the line.'.  It has been called to my attention that this is weak, so I have adjusted my win % by two for the season and 1 for Playmakers.  Point is, I put in writing that was my methodology up front- there is no funny business here.

This week was not a good one as I went 6 for 11 on picking all the games in both conferences.  My only over/under loss of the season- Kent State.  Fortunately that was also the only Playmaker I lost of the week.

No real heart breakers out there except but I do feel foolish for picking Ole Miss to beat Kentucky.  They are both so bad, I should have stuck with my original intuition and not let the numbers speak.  Both teams are out of everything and in those cases it is usually the home team that prevails.

For the record, my Playmakers were:  Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Wyoming and Houston.  The loser was Kent St Under.  This was the first week I offered two out of conference games as Playmakers, but there was slim pickings.  Since I do one/one consulting for other games, as requested, Houston and Wyoming were the cream of the crop and I decided to pass them on to you as well.

I broke out the Wyoming pick on 790 with the Big Show and the others with my steady date David Nuno and Robert Neagli on 1560 The Game (you can stream them).  But Nuno as always had me on  rain/shine so you can look forward to me providing you insight next Friday sometime between 11 and noon Central.

There are other games that start tomorrow Tues Nov 8th, as the MAC loves TV coverage on traditional dark nights.  Come back to the blog page to see those picks the day of the event.  I t ry not to pick too far in advance due to weather changes and player arrests : )

OK here are the numbers, adjusted per above disclaimer:

For the Season picking all posted games:  89 games won and 43 lost,  OUCH!!!  a teeth rattling 67% win percentage.  DAMN!!! Sorry about this, I hate giving you guys cruddy info.  I try to remember that I am picking ALL the games and its not as bad as it looks, but I can do better.

For my PLAYMAKERS:  33 wins and 10 losses, holding steady at 77% winners.  This is good, anything over 70% is good, but as always my goal on Playmakers is 80%.

This late in the season dont hold your breath for any more upset picks.  If something jumps out at me Ill pass it on to you.

Nov 4 Week 10 Picks

The MAC had two very good games on earlier, I went 2-1 on my picks there.  I doubled my bankroll on Northern Illinois and tried to double again with Temple, but that QB change did not help...  : (  

The weekend continues to have big games with 6 PlayMakers (one o/u, three out of conference)

I will pass on my PlayMakers today on 1560 The Game with Nuno and Neagli, but only the out of conference games.

Did you know that if you bet $100 on every pick I made so far this season you would be up $4,300?  

Again, my picks in bold:

Central Michigan +1  @ Kent State (under 43 looks like a winner)

Ball State @ E. Michigan -2.5

Vandy +14 @ Florida (opportunity for an over??)

NM State +32 @ Georgia UGA is not a strong closer at home

Ole Miss -2 @ Kentucky (score fest or snoozefest?)

South Carolina @ Arkansas -5

LSU @ Alabama -5 (under anyone?)

My out of conference picks are a Nuno and Neagli special...

Bring home the bacon this week.

Temple VS Ohio

Although I think Ohio is better than their record, looking at the numbers and common opponents Im picking:

Temple -4

and if  you must the under 48 (im not playing this one)

Final:  Temple 34 Ohio 10, maybe...

Why, Temple has the loss to Bowling Green stuck in their throat for a whole week and this is a must win game fto get to the Conference championship.  Their running game and defense should keep the score of Ohio low.

Nov 1 game

Play tonight, not many cold weather games to gauge but I like

N. Illinois +8.5

over 67