Point of disclosure: even though I said in week 1 or 2 that I counted ties as a win because 'its hard enough playing the line.'. It has been called to my attention that this is weak, so I have adjusted my win % by two for the season and 1 for Playmakers. Point is, I put in writing that was my methodology up front- there is no funny business here.
This week was not a good one as I went 6 for 11 on picking all the games in both conferences. My only over/under loss of the season- Kent State. Fortunately that was also the only Playmaker I lost of the week.
No real heart breakers out there except but I do feel foolish for picking Ole Miss to beat Kentucky. They are both so bad, I should have stuck with my original intuition and not let the numbers speak. Both teams are out of everything and in those cases it is usually the home team that prevails.
For the record, my Playmakers were: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Wyoming and Houston. The loser was Kent St Under. This was the first week I offered two out of conference games as Playmakers, but there was slim pickings. Since I do one/one consulting for other games, as requested, Houston and Wyoming were the cream of the crop and I decided to pass them on to you as well.
I broke out the Wyoming pick on 790 with the Big Show and the others with my steady date David Nuno and Robert Neagli on 1560 The Game (you can stream them). But Nuno as always had me on rain/shine so you can look forward to me providing you insight next Friday sometime between 11 and noon Central.
There are other games that start tomorrow Tues Nov 8th, as the MAC loves TV coverage on traditional dark nights. Come back to the blog page to see those picks the day of the event. I t ry not to pick too far in advance due to weather changes and player arrests : )
OK here are the numbers, adjusted per above disclaimer:
For the Season picking all posted games: 89 games won and 43 lost, OUCH!!! a teeth rattling 67% win percentage. DAMN!!! Sorry about this, I hate giving you guys cruddy info. I try to remember that I am picking ALL the games and its not as bad as it looks, but I can do better.
For my PLAYMAKERS: 33 wins and 10 losses, holding steady at 77% winners. This is good, anything over 70% is good, but as always my goal on Playmakers is 80%.
This late in the season dont hold your breath for any more upset picks. If something jumps out at me Ill pass it on to you.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Friday, November 4, 2011
Nov 4 Week 10 Picks
The MAC had two very good games on earlier, I went 2-1 on my picks there. I doubled my bankroll on Northern Illinois and tried to double again with Temple, but that QB change did not help... : (
The weekend continues to have big games with 6 PlayMakers (one o/u, three out of conference)
I will pass on my PlayMakers today on 1560 The Game with Nuno and Neagli, but only the out of conference games.
Did you know that if you bet $100 on every pick I made so far this season you would be up $4,300?
Again, my picks in bold:
Central Michigan +1 @ Kent State (under 43 looks like a winner)
Ball State @ E. Michigan -2.5
Vandy +14 @ Florida (opportunity for an over??)
NM State +32 @ Georgia UGA is not a strong closer at home
Ole Miss -2 @ Kentucky (score fest or snoozefest?)
South Carolina @ Arkansas -5
LSU @ Alabama -5 (under anyone?)
My out of conference picks are a Nuno and Neagli special...
Bring home the bacon this week.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Temple VS Ohio
Although I think Ohio is better than their record, looking at the numbers and common opponents Im picking:
Temple -4
and if you must the under 48 (im not playing this one)
Final: Temple 34 Ohio 10, maybe...
Why, Temple has the loss to Bowling Green stuck in their throat for a whole week and this is a must win game fto get to the Conference championship. Their running game and defense should keep the score of Ohio low.
Temple -4
and if you must the under 48 (im not playing this one)
Final: Temple 34 Ohio 10, maybe...
Why, Temple has the loss to Bowling Green stuck in their throat for a whole week and this is a must win game fto get to the Conference championship. Their running game and defense should keep the score of Ohio low.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Oct 30- Week 9 results
Interesting week, as I won a lot of games on Saturday then turned around and dumped most of it back in on Saturday night. In the AM games I doubled my investment for the day and still had half my bets pending. I ended, up for the afternoon then pressed it on Wisconsin- my bad... Forgot to follow my own rule AGAIN, play the games you like the most and leave the rest of them to the chumps!!!
I thought I was going to continue my 3 week streak of picking an upset. I got close, but close aint good enough. If you recall I gave you the following upsets, not only to cover but win: Vanderbilt (lost to a 90 yard fumble 6), Ole Miss +13 who gave Auburn a game for the first half and then Akron +8 in what I thought was really a coin flip game, but the Zips lost by 1. So my streak of giving you a cash play upset is over, until next week.
I had 5 Playmakers that were discussed on the David Nuno and Robert Neagli show, plus the game from Thursday- Houston. This week I won 4 (Miss St, Akron, Vandy, Ok St) and lost 2 (Ole Miss and Kansas St) As noted on the show I thought Kansas St could be a set up game and it did look too good to be true. Unfortunately Stoops and Co made that a reality. My season Playmaker win percentage is 77%.
For all the Conference games, I slipped some, picking only 8 correct and missing 4. My season winning percentage in these games is 70% winning 85 and losing 36.
As stated previously, when playing these games watch the weather and injuries as they ARE relevant. It is often necessarily to lay off or jump on a game based on weather changes. Two examples from this weekend were my plays on Houston and switching from Florida to Georgia based on the status of Brantley. Brantley had a bad ankle and was expected NOT to play up to an hour before the game, but at game time he was in. Luckily for me I changed my play.
NOTE TO READERS: Just because I make notes next to my picks does not make them a Playmaker. I usually note things I find of interest. Occasionally I do note a over/under note, because I intend to play that and it is a 'pick'.
Again, if you want my Playmakers for the week, you can either email me for directions at THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@gmail.com The cost is $10 per week. I will also give you my opinion on other games if you email me, but understand that customers come first.
I thought I was going to continue my 3 week streak of picking an upset. I got close, but close aint good enough. If you recall I gave you the following upsets, not only to cover but win: Vanderbilt (lost to a 90 yard fumble 6), Ole Miss +13 who gave Auburn a game for the first half and then Akron +8 in what I thought was really a coin flip game, but the Zips lost by 1. So my streak of giving you a cash play upset is over, until next week.
I had 5 Playmakers that were discussed on the David Nuno and Robert Neagli show, plus the game from Thursday- Houston. This week I won 4 (Miss St, Akron, Vandy, Ok St) and lost 2 (Ole Miss and Kansas St) As noted on the show I thought Kansas St could be a set up game and it did look too good to be true. Unfortunately Stoops and Co made that a reality. My season Playmaker win percentage is 77%.
For all the Conference games, I slipped some, picking only 8 correct and missing 4. My season winning percentage in these games is 70% winning 85 and losing 36.
As stated previously, when playing these games watch the weather and injuries as they ARE relevant. It is often necessarily to lay off or jump on a game based on weather changes. Two examples from this weekend were my plays on Houston and switching from Florida to Georgia based on the status of Brantley. Brantley had a bad ankle and was expected NOT to play up to an hour before the game, but at game time he was in. Luckily for me I changed my play.
NOTE TO READERS: Just because I make notes next to my picks does not make them a Playmaker. I usually note things I find of interest. Occasionally I do note a over/under note, because I intend to play that and it is a 'pick'.
Again, if you want my Playmakers for the week, you can either email me for directions at THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@gmail.com The cost is $10 per week. I will also give you my opinion on other games if you email me, but understand that customers come first.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Week 9 Picks VS the line Oct 26
This week looks to have a lot more action than last, not only in the fact that there are numerous, quality games, but there are opportunities to win some money.
Playmakers for the week... ...I have three listed below (past entries on how to get them) and two out of my usual conference picks that I will share on the Nuno and Neagli show tomorrow, sometime between 10 and Noon on 1560 THE GAME
My picks in BOLD:
C Michigan @ Akron +8 both defenses are in trouble and Central is only slightly favored
Bowling Green -4.5 @ Kent State look at the under
Ball State +11.5 @ Western Michigan
Buffalo +7 @ Miami Ohio
Arkansas @ Vandy +10.5
Georgia @ Florida +3 (Im not sold here) look at the under
Miss St -10 @ Kentucky
Ole Miss +13 @ Auburn
South Carolina @ Tennessee +4
If you want a special game breakdown just email me at THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@GMAIL.COM
remember, nothing in life is guaranteed except me being bad ass and death
Playmakers for the week... ...I have three listed below (past entries on how to get them) and two out of my usual conference picks that I will share on the Nuno and Neagli show tomorrow, sometime between 10 and Noon on 1560 THE GAME
My picks in BOLD:
C Michigan @ Akron +8 both defenses are in trouble and Central is only slightly favored
Bowling Green -4.5 @ Kent State look at the under
Ball State +11.5 @ Western Michigan
Buffalo +7 @ Miami Ohio
Arkansas @ Vandy +10.5
Georgia @ Florida +3 (Im not sold here) look at the under
Miss St -10 @ Kentucky
Ole Miss +13 @ Auburn
South Carolina @ Tennessee +4
If you want a special game breakdown just email me at THEPLAYWITHVEGASVIC@GMAIL.COM
remember, nothing in life is guaranteed except me being bad ass and death
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Oct 22 Results week 8
Not bad but below average week for @theVEGASVIC (follow me on twitter) overall I was 9-5 on my blog picks and 7-3 on additional live radio picks. As stated prior, this was going to be a good week for the bookmakers because they set spreads that were very close to the end results.
Personally I lost 3 picks by a point or two and won two by the same. I hate the guy that always says, "if... but..." but them is the breaks. Sometimes the man knows what he is doing but other times he misses completely. Look at the OU/ Tech game. I was big on Tech and even increased my be after the long delay because I knew that only Tech was really motivated- OU was a 28 point fav they thought they would coast in for a win then BOOOM!!! Too late to come back
I also claimed Wisconsin to be a fraud and for the third week in a row picked a big upset game, not just to cover but win. Now Wisconsin is not a fraud, as they (and OU) showed that they could come back and did not totally lose their composure, but they are not the teams many thought they were. OU does not have a great QB, Wisconsin does not have an unstoppable offense. Too bad the Spartans had that slip up against Notre Dame, they could be #3 right now.
One change to my picks. At the time I published my blog the LSU/AU game was off the board, later reinstated at LSU -21. I took LSU as noted on the David Nuno and Robert Naegli Show on 1560thegame, so I have added that into my win%.
This week I won 67% of my picks and ZERO of my Playmakers: the only Playmaker I had this week was Temple who squeaked out a win at Buffalo. If there was an LSU line I would have added them in too but there was not. I also would have added Tech and Michigan State, but this blog is about the SEC and MAC so I dont count those.
If you want me to handicap a specific game, please post it in the comments and Ill tell you what I think.
For the Season:
Picking all games in the SEC and MAC: 71% winning 77 and losing only 32 of all posted games.
Picking only my PlayMakers: I am winning 76% of the time 26-7. This weeks picks was only Temple, as noted above.
Hopefully next week will have some better action that we can take better advantage. Im just hoping that all the games do not get cancelled because everyone is too amped up about LSU/Bama. It should be a good game, but damn people, its not like the football season is make or break on this one game.
Personally I lost 3 picks by a point or two and won two by the same. I hate the guy that always says, "if... but..." but them is the breaks. Sometimes the man knows what he is doing but other times he misses completely. Look at the OU/ Tech game. I was big on Tech and even increased my be after the long delay because I knew that only Tech was really motivated- OU was a 28 point fav they thought they would coast in for a win then BOOOM!!! Too late to come back
I also claimed Wisconsin to be a fraud and for the third week in a row picked a big upset game, not just to cover but win. Now Wisconsin is not a fraud, as they (and OU) showed that they could come back and did not totally lose their composure, but they are not the teams many thought they were. OU does not have a great QB, Wisconsin does not have an unstoppable offense. Too bad the Spartans had that slip up against Notre Dame, they could be #3 right now.
One change to my picks. At the time I published my blog the LSU/AU game was off the board, later reinstated at LSU -21. I took LSU as noted on the David Nuno and Robert Naegli Show on 1560thegame, so I have added that into my win%.
This week I won 67% of my picks and ZERO of my Playmakers: the only Playmaker I had this week was Temple who squeaked out a win at Buffalo. If there was an LSU line I would have added them in too but there was not. I also would have added Tech and Michigan State, but this blog is about the SEC and MAC so I dont count those.
If you want me to handicap a specific game, please post it in the comments and Ill tell you what I think.
For the Season:
Picking all games in the SEC and MAC: 71% winning 77 and losing only 32 of all posted games.
Picking only my PlayMakers: I am winning 76% of the time 26-7. This weeks picks was only Temple, as noted above.
Hopefully next week will have some better action that we can take better advantage. Im just hoping that all the games do not get cancelled because everyone is too amped up about LSU/Bama. It should be a good game, but damn people, its not like the football season is make or break on this one game.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Week 8 Picks VS the Line
I would rather listen to Mike and Mike for a week than have to put my name on the picks this week. Although there will be some good games, the house did a great job handicapping. From what I saw, if you like an underdog get in early, if you like a favorite the wait it out and see if the line will decrease (generally).
Thanks to all those that view, as I just saw that I can track traffic on this site and Im getting about 50 hits a day- I appreciate it, I hope your winning.
This week picks in bold.
W Michigan -13 @ E Michigan
C Michigan @ Ball St -2
Temple -14 @ Bowling Green
Ohio -14 @ Akron
Miami Ohio @ Toledo -17 (the numbers disagree with me but I think Toledo rolls)
Strange the above has no dogs...
Army @ Vanderbilt -10
Tennessee @ Alabama -30 (Tennesse is getting tired and Saban wants to SCREAM ROLL TIDE)
Arkansas -17 @ Ole Miss
LSU/AU off the board at this time
Still no dogs...
I have only one Playmaker this week so save your money and dont bother paying me for the picks.
With the lack of action in the SEC, I offer you the following:
Take Texas Tech +29 at OU
Take Missouri +8 over Ok St
I like Mich St +8 over Wisconsin
I dont like Uof H -23 over Marshall but Marshall sucks pretty bad and Ill take my chances with the cougs
Stanford +21 beats Washington 44-24
Texas AM -21 over Iowa St 51-20
Just my opinion... ...I probably wont play much, maybe play a few small parlays with the data above.
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Week 7 Oct 15 College Pick Results
Another great week for @theVEGASVIC (follow me on twitter) overall I was 8-1 on my blog picks and 4-2 on additional live radio picks. I missed Georgia who did not come to play like a team wanting to win the SEC East and Texas AM who apparently are tired of being chastized. Good to see the Aggies spring back at home. Baylor was a let down as they were getting 9 points and could not keep it close.
The big news was the injury to Marcus Lattimore. Although I frown upon mom being allowed on to the field with her prayer team and laying hands upon the star RB, I hope it helped. Lattimore is a star and losing him is a loss for college football.
This week I won 89% of my picks and all 3 of my Playmakers: Temple, Ball State and LSU. If you recall I told you to take the money line on Ball State (+720) against Ohio as they were a 13 point dog. If you made a simple $10 bet you would have made $72!!!!
If you were smart enough to listen to 1560 THE GAME's David Nuno and Robert Neagli show on Friday you would have had all these picks, in addition to Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Auburn and Arizona States- all covered.
For the Season:
Picking all games in the SEC and MAC: 71% winning 67 and losing only 27 of all posted games.
Picking only my PlayMakers: I am winning 78% of the time 25-7. This weeks picks were Temple, Ball State and LSU. YES that included another upset pick.
The big news was the injury to Marcus Lattimore. Although I frown upon mom being allowed on to the field with her prayer team and laying hands upon the star RB, I hope it helped. Lattimore is a star and losing him is a loss for college football.
This week I won 89% of my picks and all 3 of my Playmakers: Temple, Ball State and LSU. If you recall I told you to take the money line on Ball State (+720) against Ohio as they were a 13 point dog. If you made a simple $10 bet you would have made $72!!!!
If you were smart enough to listen to 1560 THE GAME's David Nuno and Robert Neagli show on Friday you would have had all these picks, in addition to Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Auburn and Arizona States- all covered.
For the Season:
Picking all games in the SEC and MAC: 71% winning 67 and losing only 27 of all posted games.
Picking only my PlayMakers: I am winning 78% of the time 25-7. This weeks picks were Temple, Ball State and LSU. YES that included another upset pick.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Week 7 Picks VS the line
It seems like there are few games this week to choose in the SEC but the MAC has a full slate. Although conference play is in full effect there are not a lot of common opponents to judge the teams yet, so we still need to focus on the ole research.
Im only seeing three PlayMakers and I might be stretching that definition. Again, if you want to see them you can either pony up the $10 or listen to my call into Nuno and Neagli Show on 1560 THEGAME, if they want me to call in again- sometimes I can be a little risky on live radio #F-Bombs : )
Again, my picks are in bold. Keep an eye on the weather as that may affect some of these games due to a dependence on passing.
Toledo -7 @ Bowling Green
Buffalo @ Temple -21
Eastern Michigan +13 @ Central Michigan
Miami Ohio -3.5 @ Kent State
Western Michigan @ N Ill +1.5 (watch this one if on TV in your area
Ball State +14.5 @ Ohio (try the money line here, if you dare)
LSU -17 @ TN
Alabama -26 @ Ole Miss (last 5 years the avg point diff 6 pts)
Georgia -11 @ Vandy
Strange to pick 3 road favorites in the SEC but this week is fairly unbalanced anyway.
Stephen Garcia- he got kicked off the team today. The news is probably equally good for Garcia and the team. Garcia was once one of the best QB prospects in the country and he picked Carolina to be tutored by the QB coach. Looks like it was really Garcia's dad that picked Carolina for him and he could never handle the pressure. Whatever benefits he has blown by losing his status on the team is far less that the weight of those demons in his head. Seriously, no rational person gives up what he has been giving up without some serious mental issues. Hopefully he can straighten out and live a normal life- whatever normal is.
For South Carolina, they can turn the keys over to a lesser athlete but he is complete- body and spirit. Not to mention he is not too bad of a player. The QB move really improves the team and they will be much better because of it.
Im only seeing three PlayMakers and I might be stretching that definition. Again, if you want to see them you can either pony up the $10 or listen to my call into Nuno and Neagli Show on 1560 THEGAME, if they want me to call in again- sometimes I can be a little risky on live radio #F-Bombs : )
Again, my picks are in bold. Keep an eye on the weather as that may affect some of these games due to a dependence on passing.
Toledo -7 @ Bowling Green
Buffalo @ Temple -21
Eastern Michigan +13 @ Central Michigan
Miami Ohio -3.5 @ Kent State
Western Michigan @ N Ill +1.5 (watch this one if on TV in your area
Ball State +14.5 @ Ohio (try the money line here, if you dare)
LSU -17 @ TN
Alabama -26 @ Ole Miss (last 5 years the avg point diff 6 pts)
Georgia -11 @ Vandy
Strange to pick 3 road favorites in the SEC but this week is fairly unbalanced anyway.
Stephen Garcia- he got kicked off the team today. The news is probably equally good for Garcia and the team. Garcia was once one of the best QB prospects in the country and he picked Carolina to be tutored by the QB coach. Looks like it was really Garcia's dad that picked Carolina for him and he could never handle the pressure. Whatever benefits he has blown by losing his status on the team is far less that the weight of those demons in his head. Seriously, no rational person gives up what he has been giving up without some serious mental issues. Hopefully he can straighten out and live a normal life- whatever normal is.
For South Carolina, they can turn the keys over to a lesser athlete but he is complete- body and spirit. Not to mention he is not too bad of a player. The QB move really improves the team and they will be much better because of it.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Week 6 Line Results
As noted this was going to be a tougher week. The MAC hurt the most as I personally put my blood on the line in more games than I should have. Yes, even I go off the plan sometimes... alot of times... but if I only listened to my own advice.
It was still a winning week. I added the OU/UT game since I picked it on air, it only seems fair (this blog was already published at that time). This week I went 7-6 for ALL games, but won 4 (OU, Florida, Temple and N. Ill) and lost only one - Auburn.
S. Carolina showed that when they have a non-headcase QB they can actually score. My bad for not changing my pick after that news. In other heart breaker news... how does a season favorite (Ohio) lose to Buffalo? not sure, but it hurt me, it hurt a lot.
Otherwise:
Week stats: Overall won 54% 7-6; PlayMakers: 80% 4-1
Season: Overall, picking every game on the sheet 69% 59-26; PlayMakers: 76% 22-7
I hope you stuck with the PlayMakers...
It was still a winning week. I added the OU/UT game since I picked it on air, it only seems fair (this blog was already published at that time). This week I went 7-6 for ALL games, but won 4 (OU, Florida, Temple and N. Ill) and lost only one - Auburn.
S. Carolina showed that when they have a non-headcase QB they can actually score. My bad for not changing my pick after that news. In other heart breaker news... how does a season favorite (Ohio) lose to Buffalo? not sure, but it hurt me, it hurt a lot.
Otherwise:
Week stats: Overall won 54% 7-6; PlayMakers: 80% 4-1
Season: Overall, picking every game on the sheet 69% 59-26; PlayMakers: 76% 22-7
I hope you stuck with the PlayMakers...
Friday, October 7, 2011
Week 6 Picks VS Spread
This is an interesting week, as we are in full Conference play but there just a few SEC and MAC games that are ‘must see’ or relatively meaningful. This does not mean that there are not deals to be had; currently I have four games slated for your PlayMakers.
I will be on the David Nuno and Robert Naegli show on KGOW 1560 The Game to cover these. Only 1560 listeners will get a free PlayMaker.
My Picks are in bold; the fact that I scratch a note or two does not mean that I am backing that team or that I’m hinting it’s a PlayMaker.
Vandy @ Alabama
Auburn +10 @ Arkansas
Army @ Miami Ohio
E Michigan +21 @ Toledo (take Toledo
C Michigan
Remember I don’t guarantee anything except my past record of winning.
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